AAP might surprise itself by putting up a far better show than it is expected to

By on May 13, 2014


Exit polls are predicting 3-5 seats for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The ABP News-Neilsen poll has predicted 4 seats for the party. The India TV-CVoter has projected 5 seats for AAP, with a total vote share of about 4%. The CNN-IBN-CSDS predicted that AAP will bag between 3-7 seats. According to exit poll by the News24-Today’s Chanakya, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to win six seats, with five seats in Punjab and one in Delhi.

Across channels, the polls predict a victory for the BJP while Congress showing its worst ever performance in the Lok Sabha Elections. Let us have a look at the previous exit polls and compared these with real outcomes. In 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, both exit polls had predicted a victory for NDA, but the Congress-led UPA had emerged triumphant.

In 2004, for example, the final exit polls gave the NDA a clear victory. Exit Polls of Aajtak gave NDA alliance 248, NDTV 230-250, C-Voter 263-275, and Zee News 249. The final figures were 187 for the BJP and allies and 219 for Congress and allies.

In 2009, too, the exit polls were also wrong. The Star News gave the Congress plus allies 204, the NDTV gave Congress 205-215, CNN-IBN 215-235, and Times of India 201. The result: 261 to Congress+, and 159 for BJP+. The pollsters were defeated by the Indian voter

 In 2014 Lok Sabha Election results, the AAP might surprise itself by putting up a far better show than it is expected to. Aam Aadmi Party entry into poll can also upset all exit polls. The AAP has fielded a total of 434 candidates in Lok Sabha Elections across India. If AAP manage to get 20 seats, it will spoil the equation of all the exit polls.

This year, AAP will definitely achieve the status of a national party. AAP is expected to get a very good vote share in Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand and Kerala.To get the tag of a national party, a party needs to gather at least six percent (6%) vote share in any four or more states and win at least four Lok Sabha seats, or the party needs to win at least eleven Lok Sabha seats from three different states.

No one can denied that the nascent party -Aam Aadmi Party-captured the imagination of the people of India with its innovative style of campaigning, and with its honest promise of of equality and justice to every citizen of India. No matter who wins the 2014 race, Arvind Kejriwal and his party has created a powerful impact in a very short span of time. And that is good news for India’s democracy.

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