Narendra Modi campaign on ‘fake’ Gujarat development model: The real truth of Gujarat Development

By on March 11, 2014

Today everyone is talking about Narendra Modi, the Prime Ministerial candidate of BJP. He has been projected as “Vikas Purush” by his followers, but the question is “can he be called a Vikas Purush”. Does he deserve the epithet?

It has been propagated by his well-trained PR army that Gujarat’s development under his Chief Ministership is phenomenal and if made the PM he will also develop the Country at a fast pace.

But here it is very important to know whether Gujarat is really developing under him, or it’s a false projection of image!

Popularity of any leader can be measured through the votes he collect , if he is really doing such a great job for Gujarat , major chunk of voters must have voted for him , and he asserts the same in his every speech by saying that he has a support of 6 crore Gujarat people…. let’s check if he is true or false  – in 2012 Gujarat Assembly Elections there were 3,78,27,502 total voters , out of these total voters 2,74,17,656 actually voted and BJP got 1,31,33,057 (47.9%), Congress got 1,06,65,468 (39.63%) and remaining (12.47%) secured by others like NCP, JD(U) ,GPP & Ind. That means more than half of the voters of Gujarat (nearly 52.1%) voted against the incumbent Govt. of Narendra Modi. BJP secured less seats than the previous Assembly elections, why this downfall, if Narendra Modi is doing a great job for the state?

One can argue on this, so let us discuss on developmental front, – Gujarat was known as developing/developed state of  India since early 70’s , whereas states like MP , Bihar , and Chhattisgarh were known as “Bimaru” or under developed states. It is propagated by Narendra Modi that Gujarat is fastest developing state or no 1 state in India. But it is surprising to note that Gujarat stands at 8th position as for as Growth (%GSDP) is concerned (average 2004-05 to 2011-12) amongst the Indian states. Gujarat falls behind (1) Sikkim (2) Uttarakhand (3) Delhi (4) Bihar (5) Chandigarh (6) Maharashtra and (7) Tamilnadu.

GSDP (Gross State Domestic Produce) is a cumulative aggregate of Agriculture Growth, Industrial Growth, Service Sector and few other sectors like Tourism, Forest produce, Mining etc. Let’s check out the main sectors like Agriculture and Industrial Growth of Gujarat.

Agriculture Sector Growth: Narendra Modi in every speech tells the crowd that how he is working successfully in developing the Agriculture production. Is it true? The report titled “State of Indian Agriculture 2012-13” by Ministry of Agriculture says that during the 11th Five Year Plan 2007-08 to 2011-12 the Agriculture Growth in (1) Madhya Pradesh & (2) Chhattisgarh was 7.6%  (3) Rajasthan 7.4% (4) Jharkhand 6.0% (5) Karnataka 5.6% (6) Andhra Pradesh 4.9% (7) and Gujarat with 4.8% ranked 7th.

Production in basic agro- products like wheat has gone down in Gujarat. State Govt’s input cost per farmer per annum is only Rs. 7.

Irrigation plays a very vital role in the growth of Agriculture , Gujarat stands 9th  amongst top Indian States falling behind (1) Punjab 98% area coverage (2) Haryana 85% (3) Uttar Pradesh 76% (4)Bihar 61% (5) Tamilnadu 58% (6) West Bengal 56% (7) Andhra Pradesh 49% (8) Uttarakhand 48% and (9) Gujarat 46%.

Narendra Modi is projected as great builder of infrastructure but it seems that he ignored the development of infrastructure for Agriculture sector particularly Godown/Warehouses , there are 5 States namely (1) Madhya Pradesh (2) Andhra Pradesh (3) Punjab (4) Maharashtra (5) Haryana having more than 60% of the total agro-production Godown capacity.

Industrial Growth: It is hyped that under Narendra Modi’s Chief Ministership Gujarat made an extra ordinary Growth in Industrial Sector.

During 2001-04 the rate of Industrial Growth of Gujarat was 3.95% and during 2005-09 it was 12.65% , in isolation this appears to be a phenomenal jump, but not so when compared to some other States . During these sub-periods, Industrial Growth of Orissa was 6.4% and 17.53%, for Chhattisgarh 8.1% and 13.3% and for Uttarakhand 18.84% and 11.63%, thus hitherto backward States have surpassed Gujarat. According to the data from Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) the industrial growth rate for the state’s organized sector slumped below one percent in 2011-12 and in fact these figures could even be a little overstated as these are not adjusted for inflation.

States with highest Industrial Growth (2010-11 & 2011-12 respectively) are (1) Karnataka 12.41% & 129.92% (2) Rajasthan -7.76% & 101.47% (3) Goa 5.5% & 93.82% (4) Punjab 35.34% & 55.72%.

States with Lowest Industrial Growth: (2010-11 & 2011-12 respectively) are (1) Tripura 56.44% & -37.42% (2) Uttar Pradesh 38.22% & -13.12% (3) Jharkhand 30.75% & -10.56% (4) Chhattisgarh -0.12% & 0.35 (5) 32.78% & 0.58% (6) Gujarat 1.25% & 0.99%.

Truth of Vibrant Gujarat: Despite the much touted Vibrant Gujarat programs it is interesting to note that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not highest in Gujarat. Maharashtra leads this list while Gujarat is 5th.

According to Gujarat Govt’s own “Socio-Economic Review, Gujarat State 2010-2011” the promised investment in 2011 were over 20 lakh crores, but only 29813 crores were actually invested. In the same year out of more than 8300 MOU’s signed, only about 250 became reality.

Sanand, the site of TATA NANO PLANT, is propagated as the symbol of Narendra Modi’s aggressive push towards states Industrialization. BJP lost the 2012 Gujarat Assembly Elections in Sanand, and similarly BJP lost the Viramgam seat also where Maruti-Suzuki proposed its manufacturing facility. If development was for the betterment of the people why they rejected BJP in these constituencies?

Per Capita Income: In terms of Per Capita Income (2011) Gujarat Ranked 6th among major States with Per Capita Income of Rs. 63996 after Haryana (Rs. 92327), Maharashtra (Rs.83471), Tamilnadu (Rs. 72993), Punjab (Rs.67473) & Uttarakhand ( Rs. 68292). These figures clearly show that the story of Gujarat’s development is myth.

Total Debt & Per Capita Debt: In 2012-13 Gujarat had Rs. 1,38,978 crores of Total Outstanding Debt ( it was less than 10000 crores before 1995 and was 45,301 crores in 2001-02 when Modi took over ) The Per Capita Debt  of Gujarat is Rs. 23,163. Gujarat Govt. pays Rs. 34.50 crores per day as an interest to repay this debt. Experts say if this trend continues Gujarat will be bankrupt by 2020.

CAG Report tabled in Gujarat Assembly in March 2013 states “ as of 31/03/2012 the Govt. had invested Rs. 39179 crores in areas where the average return of investment as just 0.27% in last five years , while the Govt. paid an interest of 7.75% on its borrowings during the same period.”

Poverty Reduction: If the Gujarat is developing as portrayed the poverty in the state must have come down in last 12 years of Modi raj, but in Gujarat 31.8% people are below Poverty Line, it lagged behind Kerala (19.7%), Punjab (20.9%), Himachal Pradesh (22.9%), and Haryana (24.1%). Statistics of NSSO shows that the percentage of Poverty reduction between 2004 and 2010 was highest in Orissa at 20.2% and the lowest 8.6% in Gujarat. To project these figures better Food & Civil Supply Dept. of  Gujarat Govt. issued a circular on 16th December 2013 and instructed that the person  earning more than Rs.324/ month or Rs.10.80/ day in rural area and Rs.501/month or Rs.16.80/day in urban area is not entitled for BPL category. It is surprising when Planning Commission said Rs. 26/day in rural & Rs. 32/day in urban area  will be deemed not to be poor. BJP and Narendra Modi condemned it, saying how one can eat in Rs.32 or Rs 26, but in his own Gujarat Narendra Modi thinks one can have a meal in Rs.16.8 & Rs.10.8.

It is interesting to know that the average wages (apart from MNAREGA) are also very low in Gujarat, it ranked 14th in the list of Indian States. According to NSSO 2011 figures the average daily wages a laborer in informal sector in urban areas can expect just Rs. 106 against Rs. 218 in Kerala. In rural areas Punjab ranked 1st at Rs. 152, while Gujarat stands 12th at Rs.83.

Employment: In the category of unemployment rate in urban areas Gujarat has a lowest unemployment but it stands behind (1) Rajasthan (2) Maharashtra (3) Madhya Pradesh (4) Karnataka.

Education: Gujarat has slipped from 9th position to 18th in a latest Education Index. According to Report prepared by “ National University of  Education Planning & Administration ” Gujarat has slipped from 12th to 28th position in the primary level and from 8th to 14th rank in upper primary level , thus the composite ranking puts the state at 18th position . United Nations Development Program show that Gujarat ranked 18th when comes to success in keeping children in school. The school life expectancy of children in Kerala is 11.33 years while Gujarat is 8.79.

Literacy Rate: Gujarat Ranked 15th with 79.31%, while Kerala leads with 93.91%

Infant Mortality Rate: Goa leads in minimum mortalities, while Gujarat ranked 18th with 44%%.

Human Index : Gujarat ranked 16th after (1) Kerala (2) Delhi (3) Himachal Pradesh (4) Goa (5) Punjab (6)  6 North-East States excluding Assam (12)Maharashtra (13) Tamilnadu (14) Haryana (15) Jammu & Kashmir and (16) Gujarat.

Few days ago Narendra Modi gave a slogan “pahale Shouchalay, Phir Devalay” but is he implementing this in Gujarat?

Census 2011 says 67% of rural households in Gujarat have no access to toilets. 65% of these defecate in the open.

The 2012-13 India Rural Development Report shows that 1 in every 5 rural households has none of the 3 basic facilities i.e. drinking water, Electricity, Sanitation, while only 18% have access to all three. Kerala 71% and 13 other states have a higher figure than Gujarat.

And a shocking truth, Manav Garima (a community based organization) found (in Oct 2013) that there are 126 spots, where manual scavenging is practiced under the aegis of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corp. The practice continues in violation of the Act 1993 that provided punishment for those employing manual scavenging.

Now how can one call Narendra Modi a “Vikas Purush ”, when we find out that his  Gujarat’s so called model of development failed to put Gujarat ahead of other States in various categories of developmental indicators, and once known “Bimaru or Underdeveloped states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh , Chhattisgarh , etc. are  developing faster than Gujarat?

Posted by NITIN L. BHAND, nitinlbhand@gmail.com


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